Anthropic's $19 billion, 20-year commitment to TeraWulf in Kentucky is the clearest signal yet that frontier AI tenants are locking in power infrastructure on generation-length timescales, and the logic driving that urgency becomes obvious when you look at what is happening to the energy supply stack simultaneously: the July 4 construction-start deadline has now passed, the tax-credit-eligible renewable pipeline is effectively closed at roughly 170 gigawatts of safe-harbored projects, and PPA prices for everything outside that window are heading structurally higher. Meanwhile, a Texas investigation into data centers quietly building gas generation under minor air permits is exposing a behind-the-meter queue-bypass strategy that EPA aggregation doctrine could unwind retroactively, making the seemingly low-friction path to on-site power a latent liability. The through-line for site selectors and power buyers is that every credible route to large-scale, cost-controlled power is either shrinking or carrying new legal risk, which means the deals being signed today, whether a 20-year lease in a nuclear-adjacent market or a PPA against a safe-harbored solar project, are not aggressive bets but defensive ones.
Feature
CONNECTOR MARKETS, Queue Depth · Load Signal · This Week
Where interconnection queue activity, load growth, and current market signals converge.
| ISO |
Queue Depth |
Load Signal |
This Week's Signal |
Status |
| ERCOT | 1,828 | +3.1% | AWS files for $1.2bn data center campus outside Houston, Texas | PROCEED |
| FRCC | 1,162 | +0.9% | No signals this week | MONITOR |
| SPP | 1,009 | 0.0% | Kansas prepares for state's first hyperscale data center. | MONITOR |
| NYISO | 346 | 0.0% | No signals this week | MONITOR |
| ISO-NE | 373 | 0.0% | No signals this week | MONITOR |
| WECC | 1,564 | -0.1% | Meta's yet-to-open AI data center in Cheyenne, Wyoming has already triggered a local wastewater crackdown amid infrastructure strain. | WATCH |
| MISO | 1,655 | -0.5% | Elk River, MN city council denied Swervo/Irongate's application to repurpose a warehouse into a data center; moratorium under consideration. | WATCH |
| PJM | 1,558 | -1.5% | A Maryland county adopted a two-year moratorium on new data center development, halting project approvals. | WATCH |
| CAISO | 358 | -2.4% | Prologis files plans for 99MW data center in San Jose, CA on a site previously earmarked for industrial warehouse | WATCH |
Spotlight, Highest-Capacity Projects This Week
Meta's first Canadian AI campus in Alberta secured 1 GW of power and transmission years ahead of the announcement.
Meta quietly locked in 1 GW of Alberta grid capacity years before its Canadian AI campus announcement, signaling that hyperscalers are securing power rights well in advance of public project disclosures. For data center developers and CRE investors, this underscores that Alberta's deregulated power market rewards early movers, and that visible land deals are likely lagging indicators of capacity that's already been claimed.
Prologis files plans for 99MW data center in San Jose, CA on a site previously earmarked for industrial warehouse
Prologis is converting a formerly industrial-zoned San Jose site into a 99MW data center, signaling that even established logistics REITs are repricing land toward hyperscale power demand. For site selectors, this reinforces the Silicon Valley supply squeeze, developable parcels with grid access are being absorbed faster than new capacity can be permitted, tightening the window for securing interconnection queue positions in the market.
EQT acquires Copia Power from Carlyle; platform has 2.6GW energy assets and 9GW+ of data centers in development plus 25GW solar/storage and 7GW gas pipeline.
EQT's acquisition of Copia Power consolidates a vertically integrated platform spanning 2.6GW of operating assets, 25GW of solar/storage, 7GW of gas generation pipeline, and 9GW+ of co-located data center development, signaling that large infrastructure funds are moving aggressively to control both generation and load under one ownership structure. For data center developers and CRE investors, this deal reinforces the strategic premium now placed on platforms that can self-supply power at scale, tightening the competitive window for third parties seeking to secure grid capacity in contested markets.
Microsoft reports 25% YoY CO2 emissions rise driven by data center expansion; signed 40GW renewable capacity agreements (19GW online) across 26 countries.
Microsoft's aggressive data center expansion has driven a 25% year-over-year CO2 emissions increase, exposing the widening gap between load growth and renewable energy availability even for the best-capitalized buyers. With 40GW contracted but only 19GW online across 26 countries, developers and investors should expect prolonged interconnection queues and offtake competition to intensify in markets where Microsoft is active.
Lead Story
Anthropic signs $19bn, 20-year lease with TeraWulf for Kentucky data center capacity
Anthropic has committed $19 billion over 20 years to lease data center capacity from TeraWulf in Kentucky, signaling that frontier AI labs are now willing to sign ultra-long-term offtake agreements to secure dedicated power and infrastructure. For site selectors and CRE investors, this validates Kentucky as a serious AI compute market and demonstrates that nuclear-adjacent, low-cost power regions can command premium, decade-plus commitments from hyperscale-tier tenants.
Anthropic Signs $19B, 20-Year Lease with TeraWulf for Kentucky Data Center Capacity
Anthropic has committed $19 billion over 20 years to lease data center capacity from TeraWulf at its Kentucky campus, marking one of the longest and largest offtake agreements ever executed in the AI infrastructure sector. The deal is not simply a real estate transaction. It signals a structural shift in how frontier AI labs are approaching power and compute access: moving from flexible, short-cycle colocation arrangements toward decade-long, near-utility-scale commitments that lock in both capacity and power economics before either becomes competitively unavailable. At a moment when the interconnection queue is functionally broken in most Tier 1 markets and power procurement timelines stretch years, Anthropic is effectively paying a long-term premium to remove execution risk from its infrastructure roadmap.
For developers and IPPs, the deal reframes what creditworthy, bankable offtake looks like in the AI compute segment. A 20-year agreement from an investment-grade-adjacent counterparty transforms project finance calculus, enabling debt structures and return profiles that shorter-term leases cannot support. TeraWulf's Kentucky position, anchored by access to low-cost, nuclear-influenced power through the TVA system, is the underlying asset being monetized here. That power cost advantage, combined with a purpose-built campus designed for high-density compute, is precisely what commanded this contract structure. The implication for developers is clear: sites with durable power cost advantages and grid certainty are not just easier to lease; they can attract a fundamentally different class of tenant on fundamentally different terms.
For site selectors and CRE investors, the immediate takeaway is that Kentucky has graduated from secondary market consideration to validated AI compute destination. Markets within the TVA and associated utility footprint, particularly those with nuclear baseload exposure and available transmission capacity, should be re-underwritten with updated demand assumptions. On queue strategy, this deal reinforces the value of controlling shovel-ready sites with existing or near-term interconnection rights rather than speculative positions deep in a congested queue. For power procurement, watch whether this structure inspires similar long-dated, tenant-driven agreements in other low-cost regions, including the Carolinas, the Midwest, and PJM markets with operating nuclear capacity.
Read more →
Development Activity
Announcements
Prince William County board votes 8-0 to deny the ~2,000-acre Dulles South Innovation Center comp plan amendment
The Prince William County Board of Supervisors voted 8-0 on July 7 to deny the comprehensive plan amendment for the roughly 2,000-acre Dulles South Innovation Center, killing the project outright. It is the county's second ~2,000-acre denial this quarter, following the collapse of the Prince William Digital Gateway. Northern Virginia remains the densest data center market in the world, and the board has now twice refused to expand the land available for it at scale. For developers, the signal is that PW County entitlement risk is no longer a tail risk, it is the base case, and siting strategy has to shift to jurisdictions that will actually grant the land use.
Source: wtop.com
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DOE Office of Electricity releases draft 2026 National Transmission Needs Study, finding pressing transmission need driven by data center load growth
DOE's Office of Electricity published its draft 2026 National Transmission Needs Study on July 9, opening a 60-day comment period with comments due September 7. The study identifies a pressing near-term transmission need driven by data center load growth, and singles out NYISO, NorthernGrid South, and MISO as the regions with the highest congestion-relief potential. For developers and large loads, the comment window is the leverage point: the study frames the federal case for transmission buildout, and the regions named as congestion-relief priorities are where interconnection capacity is most likely to be unlocked.
Source: publicpower.org
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Regulatory & Policy
Signals Worth Watching
This Week's Policy Flags
PolicyPost-July 4 tax credit cliff: solar and wind projects that missed the construction-start deadline must be in service by Dec 31, 2027
The July 4, 2026 construction-start deadline has now passed. Solar and wind projects that did not begin construction in time are locked out of the 30% ITC unless they are placed in service by December 31, 2027, an 18-month window that most greenfield projects cannot meet. Treasury Notice 2025-42 also replaced the 5% cost safe harbor with the Physical Work Test for solar projects above 1.5 MW, raising the bar for what counts as having started. The practical effect for large loads: the pool of tax-credit-eligible renewable supply is now fixed, and any project not already safe-harbored carries materially worse economics, which tightens the market for new offtake.
Read more → · Source: pv magazine USA
PolicyAnalysts expect PPA prices to keep rising as clean energy tax credits phase out; ~170 GW safe-harbored pipeline becomes the scarce supply
With the July 4 construction-start deadline past, the tax-credit-eligible renewable pipeline is effectively fixed. Crux estimated a roughly 170 GW pipeline of safe-harbored projects, and analysts expect PPA prices to rise for projects that no longer qualify for IRA credits. That makes the safe-harbored pipeline the scarce supply: buyers who fail to contract into it face materially higher costs. For large loads negotiating offtake now, the safe-harbor status of a counterparty's project is the single most important diligence item in the term sheet.
Read more → · Source: ESG Dive
RegulatoryFloodlight/Texas Tribune investigation: Texas data centers using minor air permits to build on-site gas plants with no public notice
A Floodlight and Texas Tribune investigation found Texas data centers are permitting on-site gas generation under minor-source air permits, which carry no public notice requirement, then expanding, a 'small first, big later' sequence that keeps each increment below the major-source threshold. The practice is drawing scrutiny under EPA's aggregation policy, which can require related sources to be permitted as one. For anyone underwriting behind-the-meter gas as a queue bypass, permit-stacking risk now belongs in the model: an aggregation finding can retroactively pull a campus into major-source review.
Read more → · Source: Texas Tribune
RegulatoryPUCT weighs full-load emergency curtailment on the 525MW Crusoe/Ensign co-located AI campus, the first real test of the SB6 co-location framework
ERCOT has recommended that the Crusoe One and Crusoe Two loads fully curtail 525.5MW of AI compute within 30 minutes of an emergency declaration, at the Goodnight campus sited behind an existing 265.5MW wind farm. The dispute is whether curtailment should be capped at the paired generator's output or extend to the site's entire load, and the answer sets the price of behind-the-meter co-location in ERCOT. This is the first real test of the SB6 co-location framework, with a PUCT decision expected later this summer. Anyone modeling BTM as a queue bypass should treat full-load curtailment as the downside case until this docket lands.
Read more → · Source: Data Center Knowledge
RegulatoryFERC generation adequacy reports due July 20: all six RTOs must explain how they will serve existing and new large loads
Under the June 18 Section 206 show cause orders, all six RTOs and ISOs (PJM, MISO, SPP, CAISO, ISO-NE, NYISO) must file generation adequacy reports by July 20 explaining how they will ensure adequate generation to serve both existing and new large loads. A separate deadline on August 17 requires them to justify their current large-load interconnection tariffs or propose reforms. These filings are the clearest forward read available on how each market intends to ration capacity between incumbent load and new data centers, and they land inside the next two weeks.
Read more → · Source: FERC
PPA & Financing
Market Pricing Context
LevelTen's North American PPA Price Index shows solar PPA prices up roughly 13% and wind up roughly 24% year over year, the highest levels since LevelTen began indexing in 2018. With the July 4 construction-start deadline now passed, the pool of tax-credit-eligible projects is fixed, and analysts expect that escalation to continue rather than mean-revert. For large loads, the practical consequence is that renewable offtake priced off a safe-harbored project is now a scarce good, and the premium for arriving late to that pipeline compounds every quarter.
Read more → · Source: Utility Dive
Power market intelligence from a practitioner with two decades in utility-scale development, from site origination and land control through interconnection, offtake, and delivery to NTP. 5+ GW delivered across major U.S. ISOs and RTOs. The analysis connects public news to what's actually moving in the queue.
The Interconnect is part of the NexPhase Intelligence Platform, alongside DC Site Intelligence and The Morning Read: intel.nexphaseadvisory.net/platform/
This brief is complimentary intelligence, built from public news, queue data, and regulatory filings, filtered through a practitioner's read of what actually moves projects. It's the analysis I'd want on my desk on a Monday morning, shared because the market is moving faster than most coverage of it.
Coverage suggestions welcome — reply anytime. The best story tips come from people in the queue.
Chris Santiago
chris@nexphaseadvisory.net