NexPhase Advisory

The Morning Read

Wednesday, July 15, 2026
01  The Bottom Line
Two signals dominate today. New York's moratorium on hyperscale data center development is the most consequential near-term site-strategy event in any U.S. market this year, and every developer with NYISO load plans needs to reprice the regulatory risk immediately. In PJM, FERC launching settlement judge proceedings on 765-kV formula rates for the second time in a week confirms the commission is not rubber-stamping transmission cost recovery for data-center-driven buildout, which will slow the capital stack on the next wave of high-voltage projects and push queue pressure into markets where the regulatory path is cleaner.
02  Signal of the Day
NYISO
New York · 2026-07-14
New York has enacted a statewide freeze on hyperscale data center development. Any developer holding load commitments without a fully permitted, shovel-ready project cannot advance until the moratorium lifts or is successfully challenged. The freeze does not change underlying load growth or the interconnection queue, but it severs the development path for new entrants in the state.
03  Market Intelligence
PJM  · 2 signals
New Jersey · 2026-07-14
New Jersey mandating 1,100 MW of new nuclear procurement with ratepayer cost-overrun protections is a significant policy signal for the PJM load pocket that sits directly behind the state's transmission constraints. The cost-overrun protections are the interesting structural detail: they suggest legislators read what happened in Georgia and tried to legislate away the worst outcome. Whether that protection survives a real cost event is a different question, but the political commitment to new nuclear in PJM's eastern zone is now backed by statute, not just permitting enthusiasm. Watch for the RFP structure and whether it opens to advanced reactor technologies or effectively narrows to a single viable vendor.
FERC · 2026-07-14
FERC ordering a settlement judge on the Kammer-Juniata formula rates is the second such proceeding on a 765-kV PJM project in one week. Why the commission is moving this way in quick succession is not stated in the source. For developers financing PJM transmission on a formula-rate model, the settlement process adds time and introduces uncertainty on the cost-recovery side of the capital stack.
MISO  · 1 signal
AVAIO Digital · 2026-07-14
AVAIO's $6B campus drops a 150MW phase-one load into Entergy Arkansas territory in MISO South, with a build-out path to 1GW across 15 buildings. The real signal is the friction: Wrightsville's pushback and Pulaski County's own data center moratorium put Arkansas on the same opposition curve as Virginia and Pennsylvania, where entitlement, not power, is the binding constraint. Phase one already has its permits, but anyone underwriting the gigawatt expansion should watch whether the county moratorium hardens before later phases file. For developers hunting shovel-ready MISO South land, local zoning is now the gating item.
National & Policy  · 2 signals
Lazard · 2026-07-14
The Lazard report confirms renewables remain the cheapest new US generation source even as costs rose across all technologies, while rising demand has driven a sharp increase in new-build gas. For data center developers pricing long-term power, the gap between gas and renewable new-build costs now matters more, not less. Whether current ITC and PTC structures remain accessible at scale depends on legislative developments that are not yet settled.
Multiple US BESS developers/IPPs · 2026-07-14
The Lazard data shows US utility-scale BESS costs have risen, reversing prior declines. Lazard attributes the increase to import tariffs and FEOC restrictions that cut off low-cost Chinese cell supply. Developers who underwrote storage into co-location or campus power plans at prior benchmarks need to rerun the economics. FEOC compliance documentation is now a first-order underwriting question, not a closing checklist item.
04  Regulatory Watch  · 8 filingsView Filings▾
EL26-67-000 · PJM · cost allocation · 3 filings
FERC initiates Section 206 proceeding against PJM, all commissioners concurring separately
Filed 2026-06-18   20260618-3105 ›  ·  20260708-5011 ›  ·  20260618-3111 ›
ER26-1323-002 · SPP · large load
SPP compliance filing for conditional high-impact large load service tariff provisions
Filed 2026-07-06   20260706-5174 ›
ER26-2698-000 · NYISO · queue reform
NYISO supplemental filing on interconnection process improvements affecting queue procedures
Filed 2026-07-08   20260708-5191 ›
EL25-49-002 · PJM · large load
FERC issues rehearing/clarification order on PJM proceeding, likely large-load or cost policy matter.
Filed 2026-06-18   20260618-3103 ›
ER26-2514-000 · SPP · queue reform
FERC accepts SPP generator interconnection procedure revisions to Attachment V tariff.
Filed 2026-06-29   20260629-3054 ›
ER26-2771-000 · PJM · queue reform
FERC denied Chestnut Run Energy LLC's waiver request in PJM (ER26-2771), a process-integrity ruling on interconnection queue timing.
Filed 2026-07-02   20260702-3059 ›
EL26-68-000 · n/a · large load
Data Center Coalition intervenes, signaling major data center power policy proceeding.
Filed 2026-07-09   20260709-5248 ›
EL26-69-000 · n/a · large load
Data Center Coalition intervenes, signaling large-load policy dispute at FERC.
Filed 2026-07-09   20260709-5275 ›
The Morning Read is published weekday mornings under the NexPhase Advisory imprint, written by Chris Santiago. Two decades in utility-scale development, from site origination and land control through interconnection, offtake, and delivery to NTP. 5+ GW delivered across major U.S. ISOs and RTOs.
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